A pick counts only when it was saved before kick-off. Click a week to see the games behind it, or click a Missed number to see every game we picked and lost. Earlier weeks, from before our picks were being saved, are not counted here. How our picks compare with the ASWA poll is on the Poll vs Model page.

Scheduled

Games on that week’s schedule, including ones against teams outside our ratings.

Played

Of those, the games that have a final score.

Graded

Played games between two teams we rate, where we had saved a pick before kick-off.

Correct

Graded games where the team we picked to win did win. A tie counts as a miss.

Hit rate

Correct ÷ Graded.

Toss-ups

Picks too close to call: by under 5 points (shown as “by 3” or “Picked”) or at 56% or less. Click the number to list them.

Without toss-ups

Hit rate on every other game, the ones where we committed to a side.

Missed

Graded games we got wrong. Click the number to list them, each with our pick, how many points and how confident we were, and what actually happened.